Today, the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) is in session to review revenue collections and other economic data since the group's last meeting in November 2008. The consensus remains that Florida's economy is in a severe recession as tax collections, both sales tax and property tax, are down from the last reporting period. In fact, the declining revenue figures even reflect a decrease in revenue generated by the Florida Lottery. There is currently no bright spot in the state's economy and the general outlook is that this economic cycle has not yet hit bottom.  We are likely to find this current recession running deeper and lasting longer than any of the previous forecasts estimated.

It appears the current year's deficit could exceed $1.1 billion and next year the conference projects an additional deficit of $2.3 billion. The projected total deficit for next year, including these revised projections, is likely to approach $6 billion. It is also abundantly clear that the conference anticipates that these numbers could get worse and there is some concern among the members that cash reserves are beginning to be impacted.

Clearly, none of this news is positive for our state and the negative impacts on Florida's public education system and other vital services are sure to be felt by all of us in the coming months.

The REC did not attempt to factor in federal stimulus funds anticipated as a result of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). At this time, the conference is unable to determine final funding amounts, potential arrival dates and pending utilization opportunities. Also, the REC did not forecast any additional revenues that could be raised by the Legislature during the session through the enactment of new taxes or the closing of tax exemptions. Finally, keep in mind that Florida probably requires a waiver from the U.S. Department of Education in order to gain access to education related stimulus funding that is a part of the ARRA legislation.

While the report will demonstrate the further deterioration of Florida's economy, it also provides another opportunity to continue talking with the Governor and other legislative leaders about the need for additional revenue to be raised including the passage of HB731 and SB 2582 to raise the state's sales tax by one-cent for the next three years with the revenue directed to public schools, community colleges and universities.

All of us face challenges as a result of this economy, both personally and professionally. Now more than ever, we must deliver the message to our elected leaders that funding public education is the best economic stimulus for our communities. Together we can continue to work with parents, students and community activists to make our schools a priority. Today our peers that aren't members need us more than ever to demonstrate that we can make a difference in their lives and they need an invitation to join us in this fight.

Andy Ford, President

Florida Education Association

NEA, AFT, AFL-CIO

850.224.1953

Imagine the Future!